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Hi, I’m Vladimir Eremin, I am a data scientist during the day and sometimes at night as well. Welcome to my blog, where I share stories hidden behind data. Here, I explore the realms of data science, quantitative finance, and problem-solving. This blog has started as my offline journal and and some point I decided to start publishing in the hope it may be helpful for others as well. Please look around if something catches your eye. Feel free to reach out to me if you have questions or suggestions. Additionally, for those of you in NYC, I co-host a data science meetup - if you’re around, I’ll be happy to meet you at our next event!
Market cycles
by Vladimir
I have decided to develop Barton Biggs's thought concerning recurrence of the market here and to note chronology of the main changes on the schedule of DJIA for the last 100 years (1 drawing). Biggs means that the "bear" market can be identified when the value of the index falls approximately for 40%, concerning the growth for the previous period and lasts long enough to cause changes in the structure of thinking of people.
In we wash understanding, Biggs too strongly differentiates waves. For example, during 1966-1982 the market hasn't received the necessary correction in 40% and was in stagnation to the extent of 6 years. At the same time stagnation affected more only the financial markets as GDP during this period increased (the 2nd drawing).
As a result, I can assume that the economy still is in a stage of the long-term "bull" market which has begun in 1950 and the tendency will be replaced when the correction in relative expression is comparable to a situation in the 1929th years. At the same time, correction in the financial markets has to be followed by changes in the economy and be reflected in the GDP loudspeaker.
In we wash understanding, Biggs too strongly differentiates waves. For example, during 1966-1982 the market hasn't received the necessary correction in 40% and was in stagnation to the extent of 6 years. At the same time stagnation affected more only the financial markets as GDP during this period increased (the 2nd drawing).
As a result, I can assume that the economy still is in a stage of the long-term "bull" market which has begun in 1950 and the tendency will be replaced when the correction in relative expression is comparable to a situation in the 1929th years. At the same time, correction in the financial markets has to be followed by changes in the economy and be reflected in the GDP loudspeaker.
